Econometric forecasts - steel scrap, rebar & hot rolled coil prices.
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Steel price forecasts to end-2023

Five year price projections from econometric forecasting model


The following charts compare the actual prices and the predicted prices of ferrous scrap, rebar and hot rolled steel coil over the 10 years period 2009-2018, as assessed by the MCI econometric model. We use the same econometric model to predict steel prices to end-2023 [five year price forecasts].

steel price forecast - ferrous scrap
Product is 'scrap: old Steel' as defined under harmonised system code 720449. This definition covers the largest category of internationally traded ferrous scrap. Statistical analysis indicates an R2 of 0.93, meaning that the MCI regression model accounts for ~93% of the observed scrap price variation.


price outlook - rebar
Product is 10-12mm rebar in lengths. Statistical analysis indicates an R2 of 0.89, meaning that the MCI regression model accounts for ~89% of the observed rebar price variation.


price projection for hot rolled coil
Product is unpickled wide strip <3mm gauge. Statistical analysis indicates an R2 of 0.86, meaning that the MCI regression model accounts for ~86% of the observed variation in the price of hot rolled coil.


Steel price projections from the MCI econometric analysis are available for purchase for US $250+VAT per product. These analyses, prepared in December 2018, show price projections for scrap, rebar, hot rolled coil, hot dip galvanised coil (HDG, or GI), and organic coated sheet (PPGI) by month to December 2023. Future prices are identified according to the statistical relationship between historic steel product prices and the historic values of a number of key steelmaking inputs (including selected steelmaking raw material costs, energy costs, and other macroeconomic parameters); and a number of independent projections of these variables. All metal price predictions are of future world export prices, expressed in nominal US dollars per metric tonne.

A discount of 15% is available (on the 2nd or 3rd forecast) if you buy pricing projections for two products or more.



Price reports for ferrous scrap (5 year price forecast) cost $250. Click here to get the report.

purchase econometric price forecasts for ferrous scrap


Econometric forecasts for reinforcing bar (5 year rebar forecast) cost $250. Click here to buy.

purchase econometric price forecast for rebar


Pricing forecasts for hot rolled coil (5 year pricing projections) cost $250. Click here to purchase.

steel price outlook for hot rolled coil


The hot dip galvanised coil price forecasting projections (five year HDG or GI forecast) costs $250. Click here to pay.

HDG price forecasts


Forecasts for organic coated sheet prices (5 year outlook for PPGI) cost $250. Click here to purchase.

Purchase OCS econometric steel price forecasts


Note: purchasers will receive a short written report of ~five pages or more describing the metal price projections. This research report will be sent by email within 24 hours of payment receipt. The $250 purchase price does not entitle buyers to any insights into the workings of the econometric model itself however; this must remain proprietary know-how. VAT will additionally be charged as appropriate.