12 month GFMS price forecasts
World prices - scrap, steel slab, hot rolled coil
Steel price forecast
All steel prices above are in US $/metric tonne [fob basis, local port].
Source: GFMS. This analysis is updated quarterly [last update: 5th November 2011].
Base case outlook: November 2011 may be close to the bottom of the cycle in terms of pricing. However, we are still fairly optimistic about global growth in 2012 based on continued sluggish exit from recession in the West along with slower, but still high, growth in the emerging markets.
Upside scenario: Little upside is seen short-term despite recent falls in raw materials costs and steel prices. Some regional upside may be evident [e.g. in EU due to weakening currency discouraging imports]. Mid-2012 is seen as the most likely timing for any real improvement at global level.
Downside scenario: A full-blown sovereign debt crisis with deep recession in the EU is a key risk. So also is a fall-off in the construction sector in China, triggered by Government tightening of monetary control. Such developments could see the fall of hot rolled coil prices back to the $600 level by end-2012.
For one year, 3 year or five year steel product regional forecasts covering flat rolled steel in Europe, North America, Eastern Europe and / or Asia, please visit GFMS website or contact Carmen Eleta by email at carmen.eleta@gfms.co.uk.
World prices shown above are derived from regional price data. This data is from the GFMS Flat Steel Products - 12 month Forecast Report, weighted by regional steel demand (~12% USA, ~19% Europe, ~63% Asia and ~5% CIS). GFMS Flat Steel Product report is available for purchase on our steel price forecasts page. Further information about GFMS may be found here.
