ExMetrix are a group of mathematicians based in Krakow Poland, who specialise in the preparation of predictive models using correlations, artificial intelligence and other statistical techniques. The predictive analytics bring together advanced capabilities such as data mining and machine learning to help establish data patterns and relationships. Together with macroeconomic, exchange rate and other forecasts, ExMetrics also prepare industry projections. For the steel sector, ExMetrix [assisted by MCI] prepare long-term projections covering iron ore, metallurgical coal, thermal coal, blast furnace coke, scrap and ferroalloys prices; and semi finished prices (bloom, billet, slab); as well as finished steel prices (heavy plate, hot rolled coil and sheet, cold rolled coil and strip, and coated products including GI, PPGI and tinplate; as well as heavy sections, light sections, hot rolled bar, rebar, rod; and seamless or welded tube prices). The long-term projections include forecasts to end-2030.
Forecasting methodology is based on model optimisation using the simulated annealing technique. The charts below show the extent of fit between actual and predicted model data for iron ore and hot rolled steel coil (HRC). The coefficient of determination or R2 for these two models is 0.87 and 0.89 respectively.
The ExMetrix price projections are available for purchase for US $1250+VAT for all 5 products (i.e. for this $1250 price, we supply five pricing forecasts to 2030 that cover hot rolled steel coil, reinforcing bar, iron ore, thermal coal and ferrous scrap). For other products such as base metals [i.e. for copper, lead, nickel, tin, aluminum, and zinc long term price forecasts] or minerals please email email@example.com. All forecasts are created on the ExMetrix analytical platform, which enables econometric modelling using Data Mining methods. Data Mining allows analysts the opportunity to discover relationships, dependencies and other patterns across very large volumes of data; indeed, ExMetrix makes use of up to 70 million economic, demographic and and other factors in their analytical models.
Note: purchasers will receive a written report of ~8 pages or so describing the various price projections. This report will be sent by email within 24-48 hours of payment receipt. The $1250 purchase price does not entitle buyers to any insights into the workings of the econometric model itself however; this must remain proprietary know-how. VAT will additionally be charged as appropriate.
ExMetrix also prepare price forecasts covering lead, zinc, copper, aluminium and gold, and offer site visitors access to ExMetrix' own forecasting tools. For further information please visit ExMetrix website.