Strategic Advisory Case Studies

Challenge

Czech Republic's EU accession required independent verification that state aid for steel sector restructuring complied with EU competition policy while demonstrating a credible pathway to commercial viability.

Our Role

Instrumental in developing the Czech Republic's National Restructuring Programme, conducting viability assessments for three major steel companies: Nová Hut (integrated steel works), Vítkovice Steel (special steels), and Válcovny Plechu Frýdek Místek (flat products). Assessments covered operational restructuring, capacity adjustments, investment requirements, and competitive sustainability.

Outcome

The assessments demonstrated compliance with EU state aid regulations and confirmed the pathway to sustainable viability by 2006, enabling the Czech Republic to meet critical competition policy requirements for EU membership. This work directly contributed to the signing of Protocol 2 of the Accession Treaty.

Challenge

Client required comprehensive independent evaluation of a major Turkish integrated flat steel producer for a privatisation tender involving a 46% stake in the country's largest iron and steel company.

Our Role

Conducted comprehensive market, technical and financial due diligence covering competitive positioning in Turkish and export markets, operational capabilities across blast furnace–BOF–hot strip mill complex, modernisation requirements, and investment valuation for the acquisition.

Outcome

The rigorous evaluation and strategic recommendations contributed to the successful bid, enabling the client to secure this strategically significant asset. The acquisition created one of Turkey's largest industrial groups with integrated flat steel production capabilities.

Challenge

Major European bank required independent assessment of investment in a new plate mill at an integrated Russian steel works, evaluating market viability for steel plate and large diameter pipe production.

Our Role

Conducted comprehensive market study covering steel plate and large diameter pipe markets, competitive positioning, cost analysis, and long-term demand forecasts for pipeline and construction applications.

Outcome

The study concluded that the investment would create a world-class, low-cost producer with unique technical capabilities in premium-grade pipeline products, leading to bank approval of the financing package for this strategically significant project supporting critical energy infrastructure development.

Challenge

Major international investment bank required independent evaluation of greenfield melt shop and rebar rolling mill investment in Nigeria, assessing technical feasibility and market viability in a developing market with limited reliable data.

Our Role

Conducted comprehensive due diligence study covering technical feasibility, market viability, cost analysis, and project risk evaluation for the construction of new steel production capacity.

Outcome

The successful study resulted in the bank approving financing for the investment, enabling development of significant new steel production capacity in Nigeria. The plant was constructed and became fully operational within 30 months, serving the growing construction market.

Challenge

International banking syndicate required independent assessment of a heavily indebted major Ukrainian steel producer, evaluating viability for financial restructuring under challenging market conditions.

Our Role

Conducted comprehensive market, technical and commercial due diligence covering market positioning, operational capabilities, cost structure, and debt sustainability for the financial restructuring.

Outcome

The assessments secured approval of the refinancing package, enabling the company's financial stabilisation, necessary investment and operational continuity. The restructuring preserved a major industrial employer and strategic steel production capacity.

Challenge

A private investment group sought to establish the techno-economic viability of a greenfield rebar mill near Luanda — a market then almost entirely served by imports, with negligible domestic production. Reliable data on demand volumes, scrap availability, site infrastructure, and the competitive landscape was scarce, and no comparable independent study existed.

Our Role

MCI delivered a two-phase programme. Phase 1 comprised a rapid desk-based pre-feasibility study covering market sizing, demand segmentation, scrap availability modelling, capital and operating cost frameworks, and a discounted cash flow appraisal. Phase 2 involved an in-country visit to Luanda during which MCI conducted structured interviews with government ministries, the state iron ore company, the special economic zone authority, major construction contractors, and leading steel stockholders and traders. A multi-location site selection matrix was prepared scoring each candidate against criteria including demand proximity, scrap supply, electricity access, rail and port connectivity, tax concessions, and labour availability.

Outcome

The study confirmed the investment thesis: domestic rebar demand was heavily import-dependent, and higher-specification grades commanded a meaningful price premium over locally produced bar. Primary research validated key market assumptions from the desk study, identified a preferred site location, and clarified the regulatory and infrastructure environment. Importantly, the visit also uncovered emerging competitive threats not visible from desk research alone, sharpening the client's geographic and customer-segment positioning strategy. An independent assessment of the local scrap pool provided a firmer basis for raw material planning than had previously been available.

Challenge

Financial advisory firm required independent assessment of distressed steel producer's viability and development of comprehensive restructuring plan. The facility faced severe financial distress with unsustainable losses, extreme overmanning (100%+ excess staffing levels), ageing expensive rolling mills, and intense regional competition. The producer operated EAF steelmaking with rebar rolling capacity but suffered from suboptimal sales mix, poor productivity, and negative cash flow threatening near-term survival.

Our Role

Conducted comprehensive viability assessment covering market positioning, technical capabilities, environmental compliance, employment structure, and financial performance. Developed detailed financial model evaluating base case scenario and multiple restructuring options. Analysis identified critical restructuring requirements including: (i) core business definition focusing on viable product segments, (ii) radical manpower restructuring to address 100%+ overmanning across all areas, (iii) production programme cutback to sustainable volumes aligned with competitive market position, (iv) sales mix optimisation and geographic refocusing, (v) scrap purchasing reorganisation, and (vi) electricity cost renegotiation. Assessment evaluated pathway from unsustainable base case (negative cash flow to 2020, poor creditor repayment prospects) to viability through comprehensive operational transformation.

Outcome

Delivered detailed restructuring plan demonstrating pathway to viability through radical operational transformation. Analysis provided creditors with objective assessment of survival prospects whilst identifying specific action steps across market strategy, manning reductions, production rationalisation, and cost structure improvements. Restructuring framework enabled informed decision-making on business future and established foundation for turnaround implementation. The comprehensive plan addressed technical competencies and market position strengths whilst confronting critical weaknesses in cost structure and productivity.

Challenge

A private investment group developing a novel metallurgical plant concept in Mongolia required independent expert assessment of the technical and economic viability of the proposed venture. The plant was designed to produce a range of high-value advanced metal products — including specialty steels and ferroalloys — using an innovative direct reduction process technology. The client needed a rigorous, phased concept study to underpin preliminary discussions with strategic investors and potential financiers.

Our Role

MCI assembled a multi-disciplinary team covering metallurgy, market economics, and financial modelling to conduct a structured four-phase concept study. In the first phase, MCI developed detailed production cost models for each of the target product families — covering all stages from raw material preparation through to finished product — and benchmarked these against established competing producers using conventional technology in Western Europe.

The techno-economic appraisal assessed cost competitiveness product by product, identifying the main cost drivers and areas of competitive advantage or vulnerability for the proposed Mongolian facility. The second phase covered market appraisals for the selected product families, including volume and pricing analysis, identification of target customer geographies, and logistics cost assessment.

A planned third phase involved a technical visit to the process technology developers to validate cost model assumptions and clarify outstanding metallurgical process questions, followed by a financial appraisal in phase four incorporating 10-year P&L, balance sheet, and cash flow projections with IRR and payback analysis.

Outcome

The Phase I techno-economic report concluded that the proposed Mongolian facility was broadly cost-competitive with established Western European producers across most target product categories, with a particularly notable cost advantage in one product family driven by lower energy and labour costs. The study also identified that alloy raw material sourcing was the dominant cost driver across nearly all products, and highlighted a series of metallurgical process questions requiring resolution before the concept could advance to full feasibility study. The concept study provided the client with an objective, independently prepared foundation for investor discussions and informed a clear agenda for subsequent technical validation work.

Challenge

A private investment group required an independent techno-economic concept study for a novel greenfield steelmaking project in Guinea, West Africa — one of the world's first proposals to combine hydrogen-based DR ironmaking with EAF steelmaking, exploiting Guinea's abundant iron ore reserves and low-cost hydroelectric power. The client needed a rapid but rigorous assessment of project economics, capital requirements, and key uncertainties to support early-stage investor discussions.

Our Role

MCI assembled a specialist team covering iron ore mining economics, steelmaking technology, and financial modelling to deliver a structured concept study within three weeks.

The study covered:

• a review of emerging hydrogen steelmaking technologies globally (ULCOS, POSCO Finex, Japanese COURSE50, and related programmes)
• iron ore mining cost modelling for the Télimélé deposit — assessing two ore grade scenarios covering the full resource at 37% Fe and the high-grade zone at 55% Fe — including crushing, beneficiation, and magnetic separation to deliver 65% Fe fines suitable for DR processes
• a full process route design covering hydrogen DR ironmaking, EAF steelmaking, ladle refining, billet casting, and bar rolling for a 900,000 tonne per year finished steel facility
• capital cost estimation covering substantial investment requirements for both the mine and the integrated steel plant
• detailed production cost modelling at each process stage through to finished rebar
• weighted average selling price analysis across domestic (Guinea), regional (ECOWAS), and international (southern Europe/North Africa) markets
• sensitivity analysis on the two critical cost variables — electricity and hydrogen prices

Outcome

MCI delivered a comprehensive concept study identifying the key techno-economic conditions under which the project could achieve commercial viability, and quantifying the sensitivity of project economics to the critical input cost variables. The study outlined a phased development pathway through pilot and demonstration plant stages, and proposed a shortlist of potential strategic partners among major steel producers and technology licensors active in low-CO2 steelmaking research. The work provided the client with an objective, independently prepared foundation for technology partner discussions and investor presentations — positioning the project as an early-mover opportunity in what has since become mainstream green steel development.

Challenge

Major integrated steel plant required independent feasibility assessment for proposed rehabilitation programme covering sinter plant, blast furnaces, BOF converters, and continuous casters. The ageing facility was experiencing deteriorating technical performance, operational constraints, and severe financial losses exceeding $120 million annually, threatening commercial viability.

Our Role

Conducted comprehensive turnaround study encompassing market assessment, detailed technical plant survey, capital cost evaluation, and financial modelling for the proposed $multi-million rehabilitation programme. Study included assessment of plant condition across all major facilities, identification of operating practice improvements (including 'low hanging fruit'), yield optimisation opportunities, and development of 10-year financial projections to evaluate commercial viability and potential investor returns.

Outcome

Successfully prepared comprehensive turnaround plan identifying technical and financial basis for return from $120 million annual losses to projected annual profits exceeding $100 million within five years. Financial analysis demonstrated potential investor returns of approximately 30% IRR with five-year payback, though financing remained challenging given balance sheet constraints. The study provided Board-level decision support and formed the foundation for subsequent modernisation discussions.

Challenge

Law enforcement agency investigating suspected fraudulent commercial transactions required independent expert analysis of international steel long products trade documentation. Investigation centred on contracts and invoices claiming substantial steel trades valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. Key questions included: (i) authenticity of documentation, (ii) plausibility of claimed transaction volumes against regional market capacity, (iii) consistency with international trade statistics, (iv) alignment with known industry practices and supply chain logistics, and (v) probability that invoices reflected genuine commercial activity. Critical assessment needed of market shares, supplier capabilities, pricing patterns, and trade flow consistency.

Our Role

Conducted comprehensive forensic analysis utilising United Nations trade statistics, global steel manufacturer databases, industry pricing data, and logistics feasibility assessments. Examined global and regional market sizing, supplier capacity analysis, trade flow reconciliation (direct versus mirror-image customs data), pricing trend validation against raw material costs, and logistics timeline verification. Analysis identified multiple irregularities including: implausible market shares (exceeding 250% of regional imports), absence of corresponding customs records for claimed transactions, supplier capability mismatches with product specifications, pricing anomalies inconsistent with commodity cost trends, and logistical impossibilities regarding delivery timelines and transport routing. Provided expert witness testimony including four-hour cross-examination in civil proceedings.

Outcome

Delivered expert witness report providing detailed technical assessment with over 95% certainty that documentation did not reflect genuine trade. Analysis demonstrated claimed transactions were inconsistent with: (i) United Nations customs statistics showing no evidence of corresponding import volumes, (ii) global supplier capacity and dimensional capabilities, (iii) established industry logistics and quality standards, and (iv) commodity pricing patterns during relevant period. Forensic trade analysis provided law enforcement with objective technical foundation for civil proceedings whilst maintaining rigorous expert witness standards including comprehensive data sourcing, transparent methodology, and detailed appendices documenting all calculations and assumptions.

Challenge

An independent rebar producer needed to secure its billet supply by investing in a new melt shop capable of producing 450,000+ tonnes annually. Three international equipment suppliers had submitted competing proposals offering fundamentally different production technologies: conventional EAF, continuous scrap-fed furnace with advanced power systems, and dual induction furnaces. The client required independent evaluation to select the optimal technology.

Our Role

Conducted comprehensive comparative assessment of the three competing bids, evaluating production capacity, equipment scope, capital and operating costs, energy efficiency, scrap handling approaches, power requirements, and environmental performance. Analysis focused on matching technology capabilities to site constraints, particularly electrical supply limitations, while assessing both proven technologies and emerging innovations.

Outcome

Recommended the continuous scrap-fed furnace with advanced power control based on demonstrated energy savings, 25% production capacity above minimum requirements, $4–5 million annual operating cost advantages, lower electrical infrastructure needs, and proven performance at reference installations. The analysis enabled the client to make an informed decision on this major backward integration investment while identifying critical project management requirements for a rolling mill entering steelmaking for the first time.

Challenge

Client required independent evaluation of steel decarbonisation investment options. Assessment needed to evaluate technical feasibility, implementation complexity, and commercial viability of low-carbon steelmaking alternatives.

Our Role

Conducted technology assessment covering alternative decarbonisation pathways, implementation considerations, raw material requirements, and market positioning. Analysis evaluated technical and commercial aspects of transition to lower-carbon steel production.

Outcome

Delivered comprehensive assessment supporting strategic decision-making on decarbonisation investment pathway. Analysis provided framework for evaluating transition options and associated implementation considerations. Risk assessment identified key execution challenges with corresponding mitigation strategies across technical, commercial, and operational dimensions.

Challenge

A major Australian integrated mining and steel group required an independent market study to support financing and investment decisions for a significant magnetite expansion project. The project involved transitioning to large-scale production of premium-grade DR-quality magnetite concentrate, with a subsequent phase targeting a further substantial increase in output. The client needed authoritative forecasts to 2050 of global demand, supply, pricing, and competitive positioning for BF and DR magnetite concentrates and pellets, to support lender due diligence and financial modelling.

Our Role

MCI delivered a comprehensive market report covering global and regional demand and supply forecasts for BF and DR magnetite concentrate and pellets to 2050, incorporating the evolving impact of steel industry decarbonisation — including the transition from blast furnace to EAF steelmaking and growing DR iron production using hydrogen. The study included long-term price forecasts (base case, upside, and downside scenarios), VIU premium analysis by product grade, competitive cost benchmarking of the project against comparable global producers, logistics cost modelling from the mine to target markets, and assessment of the contractual structure of proposed offtake agreements. MCI also evaluated the likelihood of market uptake for the project's DR-grade concentrate and identified the most suitable target customers and geographies.

Outcome

The market report provided the client and its financial advisers with an independent, rigorous foundation for investment decisions and lender presentations. Price forecasts and competitive positioning analysis were delivered promptly to support ongoing financial modelling. The study also laid the groundwork for a subsequent larger-scale expansion phase.

Challenge

A private steel producer required independent market and technical advisory services to support the financing and due diligence process for a major greenfield steel investment in the United States — a large-capacity integrated EAF melting, casting, and long product rolling facility.

Our Role

MCI delivered comprehensive market analysis and technical assessment across multiple contract phases. Our market study quantified domestic demand for long steel products, assessed competitive positioning, and evaluated the project's cost advantages relative to existing producers. Our technical assessment covered the selected EAF technology platform, equipment configuration, and rolling mill process design, providing prospective investors, project finance lenders, and credit rating agencies with independent validation of the project's technical and commercial viability.

Outcome

MCI's analyses were instrumental in advancing the project financing process. The market study provided compelling evidence of sustained long-term demand for long steel products, while the technical report gave stakeholders confidence in the selected technology platform and equipment configuration. Reports were used directly in presentations to project finance lenders and credit rating agencies.