How We Collect
Quality Commitment: Our research methodology reflects professional consultancy standards developed over 25 years serving governments, steel producers, and investors worldwide. Every data point follows rigorous collection and verification protocols established through 25+ years of steel industry expertise. Our transparent approach underpins strategic advisory work and expert witness services.
Overview
SteelOnTheNet's research methodology combines authoritative primary sources with systematic verification procedures to deliver reliable steel industry intelligence. Our approach encompasses six core data domains: prices, demand, performance metrics, capital investment costs, steel plant capacity information, and CO2 emissions & carbon data. Each domain employs specific collection and verification techniques refined through 25 years of operational experience.
Detailed Methodology Documentation
We've published comprehensive methodology papers documenting our analytical frameworks in key areas:
Steel Demand Calculation
Bottom-up apparent domestic consumption (ADC) framework for regional and country-level demand assessment with data triangulation and verification protocols.
Steel Cost Benchmarking
Systematic cost modelling framework for steel production with detailed analysis of fixed versus variable costs, yield factors, and sensitivity analysis.
Material Flow Analysis
Plant operations analysis through upstream material flow mapping to identify bottlenecks, capacity utilisation issues, and optimisation opportunities.
Steel Plant SWOT Analysis
Steel-specific diagnostic framework for plant-level assessment of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats — covering technology vintage, BAT compliance, product monopoly, environmental liabilities, and disruptive threats.
Data Collection Framework
Price Data
We monitor comprehensive price data across finished products, semi-finished steel, and raw materials including iron ore, pig iron, scrap, DRI, ferroalloys, and electrodes.
Primary Sources:
- United Nations Comtrade database
- ISSB (International Steel Statistics Bureau)
- Official customs authorities
- Trade statistics from national sources
Demand Data
Comprehensive coverage of steel market dynamics through production, imports, exports, and consumption statistics across global markets.
Primary Sources:
- IISI (worldsteel) production statistics
- Industry press reports (SteelOrbis, GMK Centre, Steel Guru)
- UN Comtrade database for trade flows
- ISSB trade statistics
- National steel associations
Performance Data
Operational key performance indicators (KPIs) and steelmaking cost models derived from multiple authoritative sources to enable accurate benchmarking and analysis.
Primary Sources:
- Anonymised plant visits and surveys
- Academic research publications
- World Bank commodity data (iron ore, coal, natural gas)
- ISSB trade data (scrap, pig iron, DRI, electrodes, ferroalloys)
- Equipment supplier technical brochures
- Productivity calculations from employment data
- SEC Form 20-F reports and regulatory filings
- ArcelorMittal Fact Books and company benchmarking data
Capital Investment Data
Comprehensive database of steel industry capital projects maintained since 2007, providing robust benchmarking for investment analysis.
Data Elements:
- Country and investor identification
- Project location and facility details
- Capital cost and capacity
- Commissioning dates
- Equipment suppliers (where known)
- Source documentation
Primary Sources:
- Press reports and steel industry news
- Company websites and presentations
- Technical literature and trade publications
- Public announcements and filings
Capacity Information
Global steel production capacity tracking (including data for steel industry maps) from authoritative industry directories and verified through multiple cross-referencing approaches.
Primary Sources:
- Metal Bulletin's 'Iron and Steel Works of the World'
- VdeH (German Steel Federation)
- Steelbb databases [discontinued]
- Company websites and annual reports
- Press reports and steel sector presentations
CO2 Emissions & Carbon Data
Carbon pricing intelligence and process-specific emissions data enabling environmental impact assessment and carbon cost analysis across steel production routes.
Primary Sources:
- CarbonCredits.com - International carbon prices and market intelligence
- European Commission - JRC Scientific and Policy Reports: 'Prospective Scenarios on Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions in the EU Iron and Steel Industry' (2012) [Table 2, Page 13]
- US EPA Iron and Steel Production [Appendix D] - Emissions data by process step
Data Verification Procedures
Rigorous verification underpins data reliability. We employ multiple cross-checking techniques tailored to each data type, ensuring accuracy and consistency across our intelligence platform.
Price Data Verification: Mirror Image Technique
Steel export prices undergo verification using the 'mirror image' method. When Country A exports to Country B, this transaction appears in both nations' official trade statistics. Export transactions from one party should correspond precisely to import transactions by the other, allowing systematic cross-validation.
Application: This technique identifies discrepancies between reported export and import values, helping validate price accuracy and detect potential data quality issues in official steel trade statistics.
Demand Data Verification: Multiple Validation Approaches
Steel demand estimates employ several complementary verification techniques:
- Per Capita Comparisons: Unknown demand in Country X estimated using population data and known per capita consumption in comparable Country Y with similar economic characteristics
- Apparent Consumption Formula: Total steel demand assessments verified by confirming that Production + Imports - Exports = Apparent Consumption
- Segmentation Ratios: Demand composition (flat/long/tube products) validated against expected proportions based on economic structure and development stage
- Time Series Consistency: Historical patterns checked for logical progression and consistency with economic indicators and emerging steel industry trends
Performance Data Verification: Cost Model Benchmarking
Company performance assessments, particularly production costs, are benchmarked using proprietary cost models developed by SteelOnTheNet over 25 years of consultancy experience.
Methodology: Standard industry costs are applied and adjusted for company-specific factors including freight costs related to site location, raw material availability, energy costs, labour rates, and operational scale. Models incorporate:
- Operating cost structures (OPEX)
- Depreciation calculations (20-year asset life assumption)
- Interest charges (assumed capital structure: 30% debt, 70% equity; or similar)
- Input material costs indexed to market prices
Capital Investment Verification: Aggregation Analysis
Capex data verification employs aggregation and disaggregation techniques based on the fundamental principle that total project costs must equal the sum of component costs.
Database Scale: With 1,345 records since 2007, our database enables outlier detection by filtering unusual capacity or cost-per-tonne values. Statistical analysis identifies projects requiring additional verification.
Cross-referencing: Multiple sources for the same project allow cost validation and identification of reporting inconsistencies.
Capacity Verification: Material Flow Analysis
Material flow charts provide powerful capacity verification. Known or estimated crude steel production allows calculation of intermediate product outputs (billet, slab) assuming typical yield losses of 2-5%. Similarly, finished steel output can be estimated from known facility capacities.
Diagnostic Value: This approach identifies whether large volumes of semi-finished products must be purchased or sold to balance material flows, revealing potential discrepancies in capacity reporting or indicating strategic procurement patterns.
Integration: Material balance analysis cross-validates production, capacity, and trade data simultaneously, providing robust consistency checks.
Source Quality Standards
Primary Data Sources Hierarchy
We prioritise official and authoritative sources to ensure data reliability:
International Organisations
- worldsteel (formerly IISI) - production statistics
- United Nations Comtrade - comprehensive trade database
- ISSB - steel industry statistics
- World Bank - commodity prices and economic indicators
- Midrex - DRI production statistics
Industry References
- Metal Bulletin - 'Iron and Steel Works of the World'
- VdeH - German steel industry data
- Steelbb capacity databases [discontinued]
- National steel associations - country-specific data
Technical & Commercial Sources
- Equipment supplier technical documentation
- Company websites and annual reports
- Company presentations to investors
- ArcelorMittal Fact Books - comprehensive industry benchmarking data
- Academic research publications
- Industry press reports (cross-referenced)
Official Government Sources
- National customs authorities
- Statistical bureaux
- Trade ministries
- Regulatory filings (including SEC Form 20-F reports)
Confidentiality & Data Ethics
As professional consultants serving government agencies and corporate clients, we maintain rigorous confidentiality standards:
- Anonymised Research: Plant visit data and surveys are anonymised before incorporation into benchmarking databases
- Public Sources Only: All published data derives exclusively from publicly available sources
- Client Separation: Consulting projects operate under separate data governance with appropriate NDA protection
- Aggregated Reporting: Individual company data is only reported where publicly disclosed or in aggregated form preventing identification
Quality Assurance Framework
Methodology Development Timeline
2001 - Platform Launch
Initial methodology framework established with focus on price data collection from ISSB and UN Comtrade sources.
2003 - Professional Consultancy
Metals Consulting International Limited incorporated, expanding methodology to include performance benchmarking and cost modelling for government and corporate clients.
2007 - Capex Database Launch
Systematic capital investment tracking commenced, establishing comprehensive project database now exceeding 1,345 records.
2010s - Verification Enhancement
Mirror image technique refined for price validation. Material flow analysis developed for capacity verification. Cost models enhanced with 15+ years operational data.
2020s - Continuous Refinement
Ongoing methodology enhancement incorporating new data sources, verification techniques, and quality assurance procedures reflecting 25 years cumulative experience.
Applications & Use Cases
Our methodology supports diverse analytical requirements:
Export/import price trends, regional differentials, margin analysis
Supply-demand balance, trade flow analysis, consumption forecasting
Production cost comparison, competitiveness assessment, OPEX analysis
Capex benchmarking, feasibility studies, project evaluation
Utilisation rates, expansion analysis, supply adequacy
Market entry, competitive positioning, scenario analysis
Continuous Improvement
Our methodology undergoes continuous refinement based on:
- Source Evaluation: Regular assessment of data source quality and reliability
- Technique Development: New verification methods tested and implemented
- Technology Integration: Enhanced data collection and processing capabilities
- Client Feedback: Professional consultancy experience informs methodology enhancement
- Industry Evolution: Adaptation to changing steel industry dynamics and data availability
Due Diligence Framework for Steel Sector Investments
Steel industry investments—whether acquisitions, privatisations, or debt financing—require rigorous assessment across commercial, technical, financial, and risk dimensions. Our due diligence framework integrates these perspectives to provide investors, lenders, and governments with a comprehensive evaluation of asset value and investability.
Market Due Diligence
We analyse sales volumes, customer composition, end-use markets, and realistic growth expectations, benchmarking the target's position against competitor production and market share. Direct customer discussions reveal individual supplier strengths and weaknesses across product quality, inventory availability, delivery performance, and service capabilities, identifying specific areas for post-acquisition improvement.
Technical Due Diligence
Asset assessments examine nameplate capacity versus effective capacity, plant age and condition, facility loading patterns, quality capability, and modernisation requirements. We evaluate how individual assets fit within the overall process flow, identifying bottlenecks, redundancies, and capital expenditure needs that materially affect valuation and operational planning.
Financial Due Diligence
Production cost analysis—covering material usage, input costs, and cost per unit—forms the foundation for profit and loss projections. We assess main categories of fixed and current assets, review short- and long-term liabilities, and model cash flow generation under various operating scenarios, ensuring acquirers understand the true economics of the business.
Risk Profile Assessment
Steel investments carry sector-specific risks that demand careful evaluation:
- Commodity Price & Demand Cyclicality: Steel earnings are highly cyclical, tied to construction, automotive, and industrial activity, creating significant volatility during economic downturns.
- Raw Material & Input Cost Risk: Profitability exposure to iron ore, coking coal, scrap, energy, and freight fluctuations, particularly when cost increases cannot be passed to customers.
- Overcapacity & Competitive Pressure: Structural global overcapacity, especially from low-cost producers, depresses prices, margins, and utilisation rates.
- Regulatory, Trade & Protectionism Risk: Tariffs, quotas, anti-dumping measures, and environmental regulations materially affect costs and market access.
- Environmental, Climate & Decarbonisation Risk: Carbon-intensive steelmaking faces carbon pricing, emissions limits, and capital expenditure requirements for decarbonisation, with reputational and financing risks for laggards.
- Operational & Asset Risk: Unplanned outages, safety incidents, maintenance failures, and cost overruns disrupt production and profitability in large, capital-intensive facilities.
- Capital Intensity & Liquidity Risk: High fixed costs, significant maintenance and growth capex, and cyclical cash flows strain balance sheets during prolonged downturns.
- Customer & End-Market Concentration: Reliance on few customers or sectors amplifies earnings volatility when those markets weaken.
- Geopolitical & Supply Chain Risk: Operations and sourcing exposed to geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and logistics disruptions in key regions.
This integrated framework enables informed investment decisions grounded in commercial reality, technical feasibility, financial sustainability, and comprehensive risk understanding.
Transparency Commitment
This methodology disclosure reflects our commitment to transparency and professional standards, including our corrections and updates policy. Clients, researchers, and industry participants can understand how our intelligence is generated and verified, supporting informed decision-making based on reliable steel industry data.
Last Updated: March 2026
Methodology Framework: Established 2001, Continuously Enhanced