What Drives Steel Markets
The Essential Starting Point for Any Steel Investment
A rigorous market appraisal is the central foundation of any steel investment decision — and the indispensable starting point for any concept or feasibility study. Banks will demand it. Investors require it. Without it, capital is at risk.
Our experienced team of steel market analysts provides independent, conflict-free market appraisals combining desk research with optional field visits. We cover the full steel product range - flat, long, and tube products — across any region of the world.
Why Market Analysis Cannot Be Skipped
Inadequate market analysis is one of the most common causes of steel investment failure. Our podcast series on steel industry investment disasters explores real cases where insufficient market assessment led to costly write-offs:
Our Approach to Steel Market Appraisal
Our market appraisal methodology has been developed and refined over 25 years of steel sector consulting across multiple continents. It is grounded in a key principle: always start with the total demand picture, regardless of the specific product under investment consideration. For broader context on global steel consumption patterns and trends, see our steel industry markets trends analysis.
Why Total Demand Assessment Comes First
You may ask: if the investment is in a single downstream product such as rebar, why not simply assess rebar demand directly?
The answer is that the total demand picture provides essential context and credibility. A rebar demand estimate carries far greater weight when it is presented alongside:
- A total steel demand assessment, ideally cross-referenced to a World Steel Association figure
- The proportion of long products within total demand
- Rebar demand as a proportion of total long product demand
These ratios serve as independent cross-checks of data validity — critical for banks and investors scrutinising the investment case. Our demand assessment methodology is fully described here: Aggregate Steel Demand Methodology →
Desk-Based or Field Visit
Study Options
Desk-Based Market Study
Our standard market appraisal is desk-based, drawing on our proprietary databases, published trade statistics, industry reports, and 25 years of accumulated market knowledge. Suitable for preliminary assessments, concept studies, and markets where secondary data is reliable.
- Faster turnaround
- Lower cost
- Draws on proprietary SteelOnTheNet databases
- Suitable for initial investment screening
Field Visit Option
For more complex or higher-value investments, we can supplement desk research with a structured field visit to the target market. This involves direct meetings with key market participants to validate desk findings and probe issues that secondary data cannot address.
Field visit meetings typically include:
- Customers — understanding buying patterns, grade and size requirements, service requirements
- Suppliers and raw material sources
- Distributors and service centres
- Other relevant parties (government bodies, trade associations)
Demand Side Analysis
What Our Demand Assessment Covers
Our market deliberations address the following demand-side considerations:
Consumption Overview
Current steel consumption assessment for the target market. Historical demand volumes covering flat, long, and tubular products including specific product demand (e.g. rebar) with forecasts to the target date.
Demand Structure
Current structure of steel demand presented in terms of production, import, and export volumes. Local estimated geography of demand and breakdown by end-use sector.
Market Share Projection
Assumed future NewCo market share and projected domestic sales volume. Market opportunity assessment discussing optimal production volume and quality implications.
Regional Export Potential
For neighbouring countries in the region — recent steel import volumes assessed to evaluate future export potential. Identifies import volumes, regional import prices per tonne, and main import sources (principal current competitors).
Quality & Technology Trends
In main steel markets, consideration given to market-related quality issues and trends, and the associated technology implications for the proposed investment.
Distribution & Tariffs
Steel distribution arrangements including transport costs. Current and future import tariff review where applicable. Logistics and landed cost implications for NewCo competitiveness.
Supply Side Analysis
Understanding the competitive supply landscape is as important as quantifying demand. Our supply-side appraisal covers:
Supply-Side Coverage
Competitive Supply Landscape
Identification of main steel producers in the region, including potential new entrants. Production capacities for each producer with associated checks against market share assumptions.
We draw on our proprietary plant database of 4,500+ facilities and our extensive library of competitor maps to provide a thorough supply-side picture.
Competitor SWOT Analysis
A structured SWOT analysis describing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for each major competing supplier.
These perspectives on current and future markets, sales volumes, and prices allow the development of an assessment of the future probable NewCo revenue stream.
Once a full market study has been completed, the volume assumptions it produces can be further validated using our five-check framework for new steel producer market positioning — a structured methodology for testing whether projected market share figures are commercially realistic before detailed financial modelling is undertaken.
Our Process
How a Typical Market Appraisal Proceeds
Scope Agreement
We agree the scope with the client — target market, product(s), investment scale, and whether a field visit is required. We confirm the deliverable format, timeline, and fee.
Total Demand Assessment
Desk research to establish total steel demand in the target market, drawing on trade statistics, worldsteel data, and our proprietary databases. Cross-referenced for validation.
Product-Level Demand Drill-Down
Demand assessment for the specific product(s) under consideration — validated against total demand ratios. Historical data and demand forecasts prepared.
Supply Side & Competitor Review
Identification and assessment of existing and prospective competitors. SWOT analysis prepared for each major supplier.
Field Visit (if required)
Structured meetings with customers, suppliers, distributors, and other market participants to validate and supplement desk findings.
Market Opportunity Assessment
Synthesis of findings into a market opportunity assessment — including NewCo positioning, projected market share, and recommended production volume and product mix.
Written Report Delivery
Delivery of the final written report to the agreed schedule and scope.
The Deliverable
The standard deliverable is a 15–20 page written report describing:
- The relevant market, its segmentations, and principal characteristics
- Production, import, and export volumes — current and historical
- Current and historic prices
- Competitor landscape and analysis
- Future demand growth projections
- Where relevant — the positioning of NewCo today and tomorrow within this market, including projected market share
Reports are prepared to the agreed scope, schedule, and budget. All client materials are handled under our strict data security framework.
Pre-Prepared Country Steel Statistics
Alongside bespoke market appraisals, we hold pre-prepared statistical analyses of steel demand and supply for 132 countries. Where a study needs a quick, defensible base of market numbers, these can be supplied on their own — usually within a few days and at a fraction of the cost of a commissioned appraisal.
For each country and each product, the analysis sets out production, imports, exports and apparent consumption, annually from 1980 to 2040:
- Plate
- HR coil
- CR coil
- Galvanised coil
- Tinplate
- Railway track material
- Sections
- Reinforcing bar
- Other bar
- Wire rod
- Seamless tube
- Welded tube
The statistics can be delivered as data, or written up as a narrative country market report covering demand, consumption, trade and the main market trends. An example of the written country report format shows how the numbers are presented and interpreted.
Related Services
A market appraisal is typically the first element of a broader feasibility study. Our integrated advisory services cover the full investment appraisal process:
Our Advisory Services
For a full integrated feasibility study — combining market, technical, and financial analysis — see our feasibility study service.
Discuss Your Market Appraisal Requirement
Our team is available to discuss your market analysis needs — whether for an initial concept study, a full feasibility appraisal, or a standalone market assessment to support an investment decision.
We serve banks, governments, steel producers, and investors worldwide. Project-based fees. Conflict-free analysis.
Contact us to discuss your project →
Testimonials from clients including EBRD, OYAK and Deloitte can be viewed here.