Economic Analysis
Welcome to our steel industry economics resource centre. This section provides comprehensive economic analysis, market intelligence and strategic insights covering all major aspects of the global steel sector. From cost benchmarking and profitability analysis to price forecasts and government support tracking, our expert team delivers the economic intelligence required for informed strategic decision-making.
Our economic analysis combines rigorous quantitative methods with deep industry expertise from MCI's team of specialists. Each analysis is carefully developed to provide maximum value for steel producers, investors, analysts, consultants and policymakers worldwide.
Steel Industry Profitability Analysis
Understanding the relationship between capacity utilisation and profitability is fundamental to steel industry economics. Our analysis demonstrates the critical link between plant loading and financial performance.
Key Insights:
- 12-year time series analysis of EBITDA vs capacity utilisation
- Break-even capacity utilisation thresholds
- Impact of plant loading on steel company financial health
- OECD steel committee research and findings
Steel Industry EBITDA Margins vs Excess Capacity
Examining the inverse relationship between excess steelmaking capacity and industry profitability. This 21-year analysis reveals how capacity discipline drives financial performance.
Analysis Coverage:
- 21-year time series (2000-2021) of EBITDA margins vs capacity/production gap
- Impact of global financial crisis on capacity utilisation
- China's capacity rationalisation effects
- Structural profitability challenges from persistent oversupply
- OECD steelmaking capacity research (2024)
Steel Market Trends & Short-Term Outlook
Monthly market trends report from James F. King providing comprehensive analysis of steel demand, pricing, costs and economic conditions across all major regions.
Report Coverage:
- Economic outlook and demand forecasts (USA, Latin America, Europe, Asia)
- Carbon and stainless steel price analysis
- Capacity utilisation trends
- Raw material cost levels (iron ore, coal, scrap, ferroalloys)
- Monthly PDF reports, ~20 pages - Annual subscription $400
Long-Term Price Forecasts to 2050
Comprehensive price forecasts for steelmaking raw materials and finished steel products extending to 2040 and 2050, providing essential long-range planning intelligence.
Forecast Coverage:
- Raw materials: iron ore, pig iron, coal, coke, scrap, DRI
- Semi-finished: slab and billet
- Finished products: plate, HRC, CRC, rebar, merchant bar, rod
- Tubular: seamless pipe and welded tube
- 304 grade stainless steel
- Monthly subscription service - $400 annually
European Steel State Aid Database
Comprehensive tracking of government support for the European steel industry from 1994-2025, covering over 40 support programmes across multiple countries.
Database Features:
- Complete record of state aid decisions and amounts
- Decarbonisation project funding tracker
- Environmental protection and business rescue aid
- Analysis by country and funding type
- Recent major programmes: ArcelorMittal, Thyssenkrupp, Tata Steel, British Steel
World Cost Curve - Hot Rolled Coil (HRC)
Global cost benchmarking for hot rolled coil production across 180+ major steel plants worldwide, identifying lowest-cost producers and key cost drivers.
Analysis Highlights:
- Ex-works production costs for all major HRC producers
- Cost range: $265/tonne (Sidor Venezuela) to $580/tonne (European plants)
- Complete cost breakdowns by plant
- Identification of cost advantages: captive raw materials, energy costs, scale
- Updated analysis available for current year
World Cost Curve - Steel Bar
Comprehensive cost analysis of hot rolled steel bar production across 250+ global facilities, benchmarking production costs and competitive positioning.
Benchmarking Features:
- Analysis of all major bar mills with capacity over 300kt/year
- Cost range: $250/tonne (lowest cost) to $600/tonne (highest cost)
- Integrated vs scrap-based producer comparison
- Regional cost analysis and trends
- Detailed cost breakdowns available for purchase
Steel Value Chain Analysis
Visual analysis of value creation across the steel production chain, showing how prices evolve as raw materials undergo progressive transformation. Half-yearly data from 2021 to present.
Coverage:
- Flat products: iron ore ? pig iron ? slab ? HRC ? CRC ? HDG ? OCS/PPGI
- Long products: scrap ? billet ? rebar ? SBQ ? stainless bar
- Interactive slider charts updated each half-year
- Useful for investment appraisal and process route selection
Steel & Raw Materials Freight Cost Analysis
Professional transport cost estimation service for steel, iron ore, coal and metal commodities between any global locations. Detailed logistics breakdowns including ocean freight, handling, storage and insurance.
Service Features:
- Comprehensive cost analysis for any origin-destination pair
- Detailed breakdowns: ocean freight, handling, storage, insurance, interest
- Multiple transport modes: ocean, barge, rail, truck
- CO2 emissions estimates per journey (new in 2025)
- Professional reports - $60 USD per movement analysis
Custom Economic Analysis Services
In addition to our standard economic analysis offerings, we provide customised research tailored to your specific requirements. Our team can develop bespoke studies covering:
- Plant-specific or company-specific cost benchmarking
- Regional economic analysis and market assessments
- Long-range price forecasting (to 2040 or 2050)
- Profitability studies and financial modelling
- Investment appraisal and feasibility analysis
- Government policy impact assessment
- Competitive positioning analysis
- Technology economics and transition pathways
Contact us to discuss your specific economic analysis needs and receive a customised proposal.